Evaluation of the Impact of War in Syria on Production and Consumption of Wheat Crop

Abstract

The war in Syria,  started in 2011, has affected economic life. So, the cultivated area, volume of production and consumption of  the wheat crop has decreased. This study is an statistical analysis of the decrease of annual cultivated area, production and consumption volume between two periods before and through the war, and the impact on Food gap and decline of individual consumption. The study used statistic methods like annual growth rate, percentage, and equation of linear simple regression. The study revealed that there where decrease in all, area, production and consumption for the two studied periods, but little more through the war period; the annual linear regression indicated a reduce of area by average of  - 6886 he against – 6918 through ware;  a reduce of  wheat production by mean of  - 4687 tons, equal to 1,2% of the average of period before war, against reduce of – 3663 tons, equal to 1,4% of the average period through the war. The Self  Sufficiency Index has reduced from 98.97%  to 74.98% through the war, also the per capita of available wheat consumption has reduced from 205. to 151.1 kg/y. the study recommended to stop the war and the division of the country, to start reconciliation, the return of farmers, and the reconstruction of agricultural infra structure.